Russell Wilson for example has played all 80 games over the last five years, while Patrick Mahomes has only I have no qualms about calling him the best QB playing in the NFL today, and any questions about whether he could keep up his early pace have been answered. Circling Planet Mahomes is Lamar Jackson, who has also put up some astonishing numbers and a record in his three years in the league.
Jackson may not be quite at the level of Mahomes, but the Chiefs and Ravens will dominate this decade with these two quarterbacks. And even in the waning years of their careers, they still put up numbers most other QBs would sell their soul for.
Behind Brady and Brees there is a third tier of QBs that are not at the same level as Brady, Brees, Mahomes and Jackson, but stand out against the rest of their peers by a significant margin. This tier may extend to include Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers and perhaps even Ben Roethlisberger, depending on where you feel the cutoff point should be for that third tier. Any one of these borderline guys can make a claim to be included in the top 5. In any case, if you want a quarterback that can win games for your team, with his arm, with his feet, with his late-game heroics, or in any other manner, these are the guys for you.
This fourth tier includes QBs that have an above average good game percentage the 40 QB average is Remember, this is only about the last five years, from to You could easily argue that this is unfair for someone like Aaron Rodgers: From , Rodgers was cruising at a But Rodgers hit a slump from with a percentage of just For large parts of his career, Rodgers was easily up there in the HOF tier, but this sample gives him an unfavorable look; such are the vagaries of arbitrary cut-off points in statistics.
The other active former No. Kaepernick absorbed no sacks, never fumbled, rushed for 54 yards on seven carries, and added two rushing TDs. Remember that QBR is a measure of efficiency, rather than total production, and this game is almost as efficient as it gets.
No player rating system can be perfect, but we think adjusting for opposing defenses is one more step forward for measuring total quarterback performance. Skip to main content Skip to navigation. How is Total QBR calculated?
We explain our improved QB rating. Tua helps Dolphins to win after Brissett injured. Miami Dolphins. Rams add Beckham Jr. Los Angeles Rams. Superman returns: Cam rejoins QB-thin Panthers. Carolina Panthers. Seattle Seahawks. Ruggs' lawyers: Witness says firefighting slow. Las Vegas Raiders. Cowboys' Gregory calf to IR, out next 3 games. Dallas Cowboys. Jets' Wilson focused on his health, not job status. Performance against a stronger defense that tends to allow low adjusted EPA per play is adjusted upwards while performance against a weaker defense is adjusted downwards.
The degree of adjustment is in direct proportion to the strength of the opponent. Lastly, the resulting adjusted EPA per play is transformed to a 0 to scale, where 50 is average. The result can be thought of as a percentile. Think of QBR as an attempt to rate a quarterback by difficulty.
A quarterback gets more credit for success in more difficult situations, and less credit for success in less difficult situations. It tries to reward QBs for making the clutch throws downfield versus an easy swing pass on second down. Passer Rating is the official NFL measure of quarterback performance, and its calculation is much simpler than the QBR , as it depends only on aggregate statistics rather than an analysis of each play a quarterback is involved in.
Additionally, passer rating double counts completion percentage, favoring quarterbacks who tend to throw screens and other short passes. It ignores sacks, fumbles, designed runs and scrambles.
It also does not put plays into any context. Every play of every game is tracked by at least two different analysts to provide the most accurate representation of how each play occurred. Before moving on to the next play, QBR asks one more question: Did this play come in garbage time? This process of determining the EPA, dividing credit among the QB and his teammates and then determining the weight of play occurs for every play in which a quarterback is involved.
All of these plays are then added together and divided by the total number of clutch-weighted plays to produce a per-play measure of QB efficiency. That last piece is important! QBR is an efficiency stat similar to yards per play or yards per attempt. Therefore, Cousins might have provided more total value than Rodgers because he was involved in more plays, but on a per-play basis, Rodgers was significantly more efficient.
The scaling process is a fairly standard logistic regression that produces a number that is easier to grasp. On a game level, however, a QBR of 75 means that holding all other factors constant defense, offensive teammates, etc. Skip to main content Skip to navigation. How is Total QBR calculated?
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